Geopolitics Weekly | By Geopolitical Monitor
This week’s Geopolitics Weekly explores key shifts from the Middle East to East Asia and North America — including Iran’s growing water emergency, Japan’s historic political change, and U.S. defense readiness concerns.
Middle East: Iran’s Water Crisis Turns Existential
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has sounded alarm bells that the country may one day have no choice but to move the capital to the south because of the deepening water shortage and sinking crisis.
Poor management of water over many years and excessive reliance on water from nearby urban centers due 4 to dam construction, climate change, and land management practices in agriculture has led to disasters in the depletion of aquifers in Tehran. Some researchers say that even now there are approximately 31,000 sq km of land in Iran that are sinking greater than 10mm per year, leading to the risk of homes, roads and other infrastructure collapsing due to ongoing subsidence.
Water shortages have led to protests in 2018, 2021 and in the present day, and there were reports in 2024 that average rainfall was down 42%. Experts have warned that if this trend continues, Tehran could reach a so-called “Day Zero” scenario, and will likely result in political instability and ecosystem instability.
South Asia: U.S. Eyes New Port Deal with Pakistan
Sources indicate that advisers to Asim Munir, Chief of Army Staff of Pakistan, have been exploring a port in Pasni, approximately 110km from Gwadar Port (China) with backing from the United States. The proposal was reported on March 29, of this year, in a meeting at the White House, potentially opening a new chapter in U.S-Pakistan relations, not least with U.S. ally India, as tensions reduced.
Commentators suggest that depending on it being operational, it will significantly reorient South Asian geopolitics, although the United States does not have a state run capability to duplicate China’s Belt and Road initiative. The proposal remains murky and destruction/non-military. However, it “is illustrative of the shifting balance of power in the region.”
Asia: Sanae Takaichi Becomes Japan’s First Female Prime Minister
After Shigeru Ishiba stepped down as prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, a conservative leader and close associate of Shinzo Abe, was chosen as Japan’s first female prime minister.
Markets reacted positively, with the Nikkei climbing 4.75% as Takaichi promised to maintain stimulus spending and to hold off interest rate rises. Her nationalist foreign policy — stronger relations with Taiwan and visits to the Yasukuni Shrine — is likely to exacerbate tensions with China and South Korea.
North America: Pentagon Warns of Missile Shortages
The Pentagon has subtly nudged the American defense establishments to accelerate output of 12 critical missile systems in light of worries that munitions levels are insufficient for war with China.
Of course, the problem is not new. Given the experience of recent conflicts – Ukraine, Gaza, and the Red Sea – a thorough conflict will consume advanced munitions far too quickly. It will take experts years, new supply chains, and possibly bipartisan political will to replenish the U.S. ‘s modern missile inventories.
[…] Iran Faces Water Collapse, Japan First Female PM Takes Office, Pentagon Warns of Missile Shortage […]